The United States is Set to Become Europe's Largest Gas Supplier, Surpassing Norway

According to recent research by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Research (IEEFA), Europe may have been able to break free from its over-reliance on Russian natural gas, but only by switching to another foreign source.

This year, the United States is expected to surpass Norway, a regional energy security partner, to become the EU's biggest gas provider of any kind.

Due to the quick development of U.S. Gulf Coast LNG plants and the sudden unavailability of Middle Eastern supply because of the Iran crisis, the U.S. is surpassing Norway's pipeline-gas advantage.

U.S. LNG Surges as Europe Faces Supply Risks

Typically, the world's second-largest LNG exporter, Qatar, is currently on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz for international shipping. Because of this, around two-thirds of all LNG imports into Europe currently come from American liquefaction terminals; by 2028, this percentage might reach 80%, according to IEEFA.

For the same reason, despite the EU's plans to outlaw these cargoes by the end of next year, shipments of LNG from Russia are increasing and are currently at their highest level since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. In just the first quarter, Russian LNG imports increased 16% year over year.

According to IEEFA's Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, LNG is now a critical vulnerability in Europe's energy security, resulting in elevated gas prices and potential supply disruptions. The 2026 energy crisis underscores that reliance on gas entails accepting associated geopolitical risks.

Europe Aims to Reduce Gas Use by 2030

Reducing demand is part of the solution. By 2030, Europe's natural gas usage is expected to decrease by 14%, with a disproportionate amount of the decreased supply coming from more expensive LNG.

According to the research tank, even more may be accomplished by accelerating the deployment of heat pumps in the EU home market. This affects how many import terminals the EU needs, and according to IEEFA, there will probably be more import infrastructure capacity by 2030.

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